Simulate how long your retirement corpus lasts given your withdrawal amount, portfolio return, and inflation. See the sustainable withdrawal rate for a 30-year horizon.
Total portfolio value at retirement
Amount you plan to withdraw each year (inflation-adjusted)
Expected nominal return on your portfolio
Used to inflate withdrawals each year (US avg ~3%)
The safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the annual percentage of your portfolio you can spend without running out of money over your retirement. The classic 4% rule, derived from the Trinity Study, found that withdrawing 4% of initial portfolio value (inflation- adjusted each year) had a 95%+ success rate over 30-year retirements using US market data from 1926–1995.
| Rate | Risk level | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | Very safe | Early retirement (40+ yr horizon) |
| 3.5% | Safe | Conservative 30-yr retirement |
| 4.0% | Classic safe | Standard 30-yr retirement |
| 5.0% | Moderate risk | Short horizon or flexible spending |
| 6%+ | High risk | May deplete in <25 years |
Some researchers argue that at high CAPE ratios, a 3–3.5% rate is more prudent. Others counter that flexibility (reducing spending in bad markets) extends portfolio life regardless. This calculator lets you stress-test different return assumptions.
Your withdrawal grows each year with inflation. If you withdraw $50,000 in year 1 at 3% inflation, you withdraw $51,500 in year 2, $53,045 in year 3, etc. — maintaining purchasing power.
No — social security is a separate income stream. Subtract it from annual expenses first. If SS covers $24,000/yr of a $60,000 budget, you only need to withdraw $36,000/yr from your portfolio.